DECLARATION-What is at stake in the French presidential campaign
The election campaign for the presidential elections next April is already underway in France: On Saturday, the candidate of the conservative Les Republicains spoke at the first rally since she was elected as the party’s candidate.
* WHO WILL WIN? The opposition is weak and fragmented. Opinion polls have long shown that President Emmanuel Macron leads the first round and then wins a runoff in the second round to get a second mandate. That seems less clear now.
Even if he is successful, Macron needs his center-right party La Republique en Marche (LREM), which failed in all local elections, to win the parliamentary elections in June if he wants to implement his policy comfortably. * WHAT TO NOTE:
– The race for the runoff between the right-wing extremist expert Eric Zemmour https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/right-wing-chat-show-celebrity-may-alter-frances-election- dynamics-2021-09- 21, Marine Le Pen, from the more established right-wing National Rally, and Valerie Pecresse https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pecresse-wins-french-conservatives-ticket-presidential -Wahl-2021-12-04 of the conservative Les Republicains. – Can there be a “French Fox News free-to-air news channel CNews has taken a conservative turn since Bollore took control” effect? The free-to-air channel CNews largely favors Zemmour. It has taken a conservative turn since the media tycoon Vincent Bollore, whose influence over the French media is growing, took control.
– Is it getting ugly? Violence overshadows Zemmour’s first rally https://news.trust.org/item/20211206135333-4d72j. – When will Macron officially confirm that he is a candidate and how? It is already in preselection mode https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-macrons-secret-campaign-team-points-conservative-battle-ahead-2021-10-14.
– Can Macron lose its lead in opinion polls? In 2017, the early favorites lost the election, which was won by the then underdog Macron. * WHAT WILL THE ELECTION BE FIGHTED?
– Immigration and security issues are at the forefront of the political debate, with Zemmour making headlines with harsh comments and other candidates on the right and left following suit. – But an OpinionWay survey https://archive.wikiwix.com/cache/display2.php/attachment.pdf?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.opinion-way.com%2Ffr%2Fcomponent%2Fedocman%2Fopinionway- pour -les-echos-cnews-radio-classique-presitrack-vague-2-octobre-2021% 2Fviewdocument% 2F2695.html and other polls have shown that purchasing power, not immigration, is the main concern of voters, followed by welfare issues.
– Whether the economic recovery holds will also be decisive. Opinion polls show that voters are dissatisfied with Macron’s economic policies, but they believe that none of his opponents would do better. – If the pandemic intensifies again, health concerns could come back to the fore.
* WHY IT MATTERS – Now that the UK has left the EU, France is the bloc’s main military power and arguably the second largest economy, and Angela Merkel’s departure as German Chancellor has given Macron a more prominent role in Europe.
– The next president will face rising public deficits to cope with the effects of the pandemic, a pension https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-delays-pension-reform-unlikely-before-2022- election-2021 -11-09 In the opinion of many, the system must be reformed and has ambitions for re-industrialization https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/macron-unveils-30-bln-euro-france-2030- investment plan 2021-10-12 France. * MAIN GUARDIANS
– Macron. The 43-year-old incumbent was elected on a centrist platform, but his policy swerved to the right. – Le Pen https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-le-pen-proposes-referendum-immigration-if-elected-president-2021-09-27. This is the 53-year-old MP’s third presidential election. She made it to the second round in 2017, and polls had long predicted she would do it again this time, but Zemmour or Pecresse could thwart her hopes.
– Zemmour. The candidacy of the 63-year-old journalist was the first big surprise of this campaign. Mohammed should be banned as a first name in France and has been condemned in the past for incitement to hatred. – Pecresse, 54th head of the Ile-de-France region of Paris and representative of Les Republicains. Some opinion polls show https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-poll-idUSKBN2IL26M that she might stand a chance of becoming the first female president of France.
– Links the Greens https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-greens-pick-jadot-presidential-candidate-amid-fragmented-left-2021-09-28 Yannick Jadot, the socialists’ Anne Hidalgo https : //www.reuters.com/world/europe/paris-mayor-enters-race-french-presidency-2021-09-12 and the left Jean-Luc Melenchon https: //www.reuters .com / article / us -france-election-melenchon-idUSKBN27O0UU are the most prominent in a long list of candidates who have little chance of qualifying for the runoff election. * KEY DATA
April 10th – First ballot of the presidential election. April 24th – Second ballot between the two top candidates
May 13th – New President takes office June 12th and 19th – General elections
(This story was not edited by Devdiscourse staff and is automatically generated from a syndicated feed.)