Will US households spend $ 19 billion more on energy bills by 2030?

Representative Roger Williams: “US households are well on their way to spending $ 19 billion more on energy by 2030.”

PolitiFact’s verdict: Half true

Here’s why: When President Joe Biden attended the United Nations Conference on Climate Change and pledged to cut US greenhouse gas emissions “while making it more affordable for consumers to save on their own energy bills,” a Republican congressman from Texas claimed the opposite.

In a one-minute speech in Congress on October 28th, Rep. Roger Williams, R-Austin said, “US households are well on their way to spending $ 19 billion more on energy by 2030.” The CSPAN footage of his minute-long speech was tweeted by Williams on Nov. 1.

Is he right? And how will the energy costs of US households change in the future?

American Petroleum Institute Hypothetical Analysis

When asked about Williams’ source, his office referred to an analysis by the American Petroleum Institute, a lobbying organization for the oil and gas industry. The analysis was carried out for the institute by the energy consultancy OnLocation Inc.

The analysis is specific to a Biden election campaign proposal: a ban on oil and gas operations on state and water. Williams highlighted this at the beginning of his speech.

The $ 19 billion figure comes from a September 2020 report sparked by a campaign promise made by Biden at the time to ban the leasing and development of oil and gas operations in states. The forecast is that US households will cumulatively spend 19 billion US dollars more on energy by 2030 (in US dollars from 2018).

The Institute has extrapolated, and modified the assumptions of a US Department of Energy’s US Energy Information Administration model that tracks energy market data and develops, extrapolated, and modified future prospects.

After taking office, Biden banned new leases for oil and gas production on public land and in offshore waters by executive order until a review of the permit and lease program could be completed.

More:Fact Check: Will Biden’s Drilling Ban on Federal Leases “Kill” 120,000 Jobs in Texas?

The analysis for 2020 was based on the proposal to ban new leases and allow existing leases, while Biden’s Executive Order only provided for new leases, a spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute said.

The actual leasing break was short, however, as a federal court ordered the resumption of letting in June. The Home Office issued a notice in August of the steps it has taken to comply with the restraining order. The Justice Department is also appealing the decision to the US 5th Court of Appeals.

A Home Office spokesman stated in an email on Nov. 17 that the hiatus in re-letting had no impact on current oil and gas production.

Therefore, when criticizing Biden’s policies, Williams used a statistic that is specific to an election promise that is not currently in force.

The American Petroleum Institute has an addendum to its analysis, but does not have an estimate of the potential impact on household energy costs in 2021 if only new rentals were paused.

More: Fact Check: Will Biden’s Build Back Better Plan Have A Negative Impact On Inflation?

A US Energy Information Administration spokesman wrote in an email that non-renewable energy spending in residential buildings is expected to increase by $ 18 billion (in 2020 $ 247 billion) under applicable laws and regulations Will rise to $ 265 billion.

Ultimately, the energy forecast for households is a challenge – energy prices for households depend on a number of difficult to predict factors. The Energy Information Administration warned in its “Annual Energy Outlook 2021” that many events as well as future technologies and demographics could ultimately affect the energy markets.

Our verdict

Williams said, “US households are well on their way to spending $ 19 billion more on energy by 2030,” because of Biden’s energy policy.

The number was specific to the ban on all new lease and development projects for oil and gas activities on the state and waters. A ban of this magnitude did not come into force; only re-letting was prohibited. And this ban is currently being blocked by a federal judge.

The statistics also speak only for a Biden policy among many climate policies, some of which Biden claims to lower household costs.

Predicting energy prices for households is difficult because many factors affect them and analysts need to hold many factors constant in order to make predictions.

For example, assuming laws and regulations stay the same, the Energy Information Administration estimates that household spending will increase by $ 18 billion.

We rate this as an assertion as half true, which means that the statement is partially correct but leaves out important details or takes things out of context.

sources

• Tweet from Roger Williams, November 1st, 2021.
• U.S. House of Representatives, House Session Part 1, October 28, 2021.
• Email from Halee Dobbins, Office Secretary, Office of Congressman Roger Williams (TX-25), Nov. 5, 2021.
• Emails from Jessica Szymanski of the American Petroleum Institute, November 15, 16, and 22, 2021.
• The White House, “Executive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis in In- and Abroad,” January 27, 2021.
• Emails from Severin Borenstein, Faculty Director of The Energy Institute at the Haas School of Business, November 16, 2021.
• Email from Chris Higginbotham, US Energy Information Administration Media Relations, November 16, 2021.
• Email from Melissa Schwartz, Director of Communications at the Ministry of the Interior’s Secretariat, 11/17/2021.
• White House, “Remarks by President Biden at the COP26 Leaders Statement,” Nov. 1, 2021.
• Kevin McGill, Associated Press, “Federal Judge Blocks Biden’s Break on New Oil and Gas Leases,” June 15, 2021.
• Kevin McGill, Associated Press, “Biden Administrator Appeals Oil and Gas Lease Freeze,” August 16, 2021.
• Ministry of the Interior, “FACT SHEET: President Biden Takes Action To Maintain Commitment to Restoring Balance in Public Land and Water, Invest in Clean Energy Future,” January 27, 2021.
• Home Office, Interior Department Files Court Brief Outlining Next Steps in Leasing Program, August 24, 2021.